Author: Reventure Data

Mortgage Rates Are Not the Problem. Home Prices Are 25% Above Historical Norms

Mortgage rates are not the problem in the U.S. housing market. That might sound strange when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.7%. But historically, today’s mortgage rates aren’t particularly high. In fact, they’re remarkably normal. The long-term average mortgage rate going back roughly 136 years is around 6.4%. And when today’s mortgage […]

The U.S. Housing Shortage Is Fading. Inventory Is Only 8% Below 2019

The U.S. Housing Shortage is starting to look very different from the story buyers heard during the pandemic. Housing inventory is now almost back to pre-pandemic levels. In August 2019, there were roughly 1.24 million homes listed for sale across the country. In August 2026, inventory reached about 1.14 million. That means national supply is […]

U.S. Housing Affordability Crisis Is Not About Mortgage Rates. Home Prices Are 90% Too High

The U.S. Housing Affordability Crisis is often blamed on mortgage rates. But that explanation misses the bigger problem. Today’s mortgage rates are around 6.5%, which is very close to the long-term historical average of roughly 6.4%. Rates were much higher throughout large parts of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. The real outlier today is home […]

Baby Boomer Housing Exodus Is Coming. Gen X Is 20% Smaller

A major housing headwind is approaching. And it has almost nothing to do with mortgage rates. The Baby Boomer Housing Exodus could become one of the biggest forces reshaping the U.S. housing market over the next decade as millions of older homeowners move through retirement and eventually age out of their homes. That transition could […]

The U.S. Baby Bust Is Getting Worse. Deaths Could Surpass Births by 2034

The U.S. Baby Bust Is Getting Worse. Birth rates have fallen roughly 35% over the last three decades, while deaths are steadily increasing as America gets older. By 2034, Reventure projects the country could reach a historic tipping point where deaths surpass births. That would fundamentally change America’s demographic engine. For generations, the United States […]

New Homes Are Now Cheaper Than Existing Homes. First Time in U.S. History.

New Homes Are Now Cheaper than existing homes for the first time in U.S. history. The typical existing home sold for about $434,000 in July 2026, compared with only $394,000 for a new build. That puts brand-new homes at a remarkable $40,000 discount to resale properties. Historically, the exact opposite has been true. Buyers normally […]

Why Is Housing So Unaffordable? Home Prices Are 90% Above Historical Norms

The U.S. homebuilder recession just got worse. Months of supply for new homes have climbed north of 9.0 months, putting builder inventory near levels last seen around the 2008 housing crash. There have only been a handful of periods in modern U.S. history when builders were sitting on this much supply. And almost all of […]

Florida Housing Inventory Suddenly Drops 14%. But Buyers Aren’t Coming Back

Florida Housing Inventory Suddenly Drops 14% after spending two years moving sharply in the opposite direction. From July 2023 to July 2025, the number of homes for sale across Florida surged roughly 110%, eventually approaching 175,000 listings. That enormous increase in supply shifted negotiating power toward buyers and contributed to falling home values across many […]

Are Investor-Heavy Housing Markets Starting to Break? Home Prices Fall 20%

Something is breaking in America’s Investor-Heavy Housing Markets. During the pandemic housing boom, investors flooded markets like Atlanta, Jacksonville, Charlotte, Baltimore, and Phoenix. In some ZIP codes, investors accounted for more than 40% of home purchases in 2022, providing an enormous additional source of demand. Now that demand is disappearing. Many of the ZIP codes […]

Is the U.S. Housing Market in Its Longest Homebuyer Recession Ever?

The U.S. Housing Market in Its Longest Homebuyer Recession is facing another problem that could last far longer than today’s mortgage-rate shock. Pending home sales fell another 2.3% in July and remain roughly 33% below pre-pandemic norms. Contract signings have now stayed depressed for longer than during the entire 2008–2011 housing downturn, while mortgage applications […]