Austin is Officially Losing People. Will Home Prices Keep Going Down in 2025?

Austin’s housing market is undergoing a significant reset as population trends shift and price growth reverses. After peaking with 35% year-over-year home value growth in 2022, the market has cooled dramatically, with values declining by 3.4% in 2025, according to data available on Reventure App. This back-to-back annual drop reflects deepening pressure on prices, driven by weakening demand and growing signs that Austin’s once-booming housing scene is losing momentum.

Austin’s Population Boom Reverses as Outmigration Accelerates in 2025

Austin is no longer gaining people at the pace it once did. In 2025, domestic migration across the Austin metro slowed to just 0.5%, according to the data available on Reventure App. This figure is down sharply from 1.8% in 2021, highlighting a steep decline in the number of Americans relocating to the city. Moreover, the trend is specifically more alarming in Travis County, where migration turned negative, falling to -0.9%, the lowest level since 2003. 

Travis County’s domestic migration % decreased to -0.9% in 2025. Access the domestic migration % chart of Travis County here. [Link]

This reversal means that more people are moving out of Travis than moving in. Furthermore, Travis County experienced a net loss of 13,500 residents to domestic outmigration in 2025, following a loss of 10,000 in 2023, marking the steepest back-to-back population declines in over two decades. These declines are not just demographic shifts. They are beginning to reshape the housing market, reducing buyer competition and cooling demand. As fewer people arrive, the pressure that once drove up prices and listings is starting to ease across the region.

Home Prices in Travis County Drop 20% from Peak Levels Since 2022

Home prices across Travis County have declined sharply since their peak in mid-2022. According to the data available on Reventure App, after soaring 16.2% in 2022, home value growth reversed sharply, falling -2.7% in 2023 and then by –4.3% in 2025. The back-to-back declines have erased a substantial portion of the pandemic-era gains and now reflect a total drop of roughly 20% from the peak, a clear indication of ongoing market correction.

Travis County’s home value growth % YoY reached -4.3% in 2025. Access the above home value growth YoY chart here. [Link]

Moreover, inventory is steadily increasing. As of 2025, there are 4,081 homes for sale in Travis County, up from 3,468 in 2024 and more than double the 2022 low of just 678 homes. This rise in inventory suggests that more homeowners are trying to sell as buyer demand softens. With more homes on the market and prices continuing to slide, sellers are facing growing pressure to lower expectations. The Travis County housing market is clearly adjusting to slower population growth and reduced affordability.

Austin, TX’s Housing Market Predictions in 2025

Travis, TX’s housing market will remain in a declining phase in 2025, with a home price forecast score of 32 out of 100, indicating dropped increased homes for sale in the shifting market dynamics. This score is below Reventure App’s stability range (45-55), suggesting that home values are decreasing compared to previous years. A score above 45 on Reventure App indicates an unstable market with a downward trend.

Travis County’s home price forecast score reached 32/ 100 entering 2025. Access the home price forecast score chart here. [Link]

As home prices are expected to reduce, higher inventory levels and longer days on the market will create better opportunities for buyers. Sellers will need to adjust pricing or offer incentives to stay competitive as inventory grows. Unless a drastic shift happens, Travis’s home price growth is likely to decline more in 2025, making it a complete buyers’ market. If you want a detailed analysis of the Austin, TX metro area, explore the housing market data at the ZIP-code level on Reventure App.

Access Housing Market data for the District of Texas and other States on Reventure App.

FAQs about Austin’s Housing Market 2025

Is Austin’s Housing Market Cooling Down in 2025?

Yes, recent data shows home prices and migration rates are both declining, which suggests a softening in the market. The drop in domestic migration and back-to-back home value declines suggest that Austin’s once-hot market is losing steam.

Why are Home Prices Falling in Travis County?

Falling demand due to lower domestic migration and rising inventory levels are contributing to downward pressure on home prices. This combination of rising inventory and negative migration is putting clear downward pressure on home prices in Travis County.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy a Home in Austin?

Market conditions are shifting, with more listings and longer days on the market, which may create more options for buyers depending on their goals. However, whether it’s a good time depends on individual goals, financial readiness, and long-term plans.