Texas homebuyers will soon find relief as the State’s housing market shows signs of a significant cooldown. According to Reventure’s Home Price Forecast, Texas scores just 37 out of 100 for 2025, placing it firmly in “Buyers Market” territory. This low score reflects strong downward pressure on home prices across the state.
Texas’ Home Price Forecast score reached 37 out of 100 in 2025, which means it has become a buyers’ market. Access the above graph here. [Link]
The projection translates to an estimated 5% year-over-year price decline through March 2026, marking a sharp reversal from the surge during the pandemic. With affordability challenges and rising inventory levels, the Texas housing market is adjusting to a new, more buyer-friendly reality. Let’s get into the details of the State’s housing market situation:
Texas Home Prices Are Already Falling as More Sellers Cut Asking Prices in 2025
Prices in Texas have already dropped, with clear signs of distress visible in seller behavior. In 2025, 25.5% of homes for sale had a price cut, according to the data available on Reventure App. That’s a noticeable jump from 23.3% in 2024 and 22.0% in 2023, showing a steady rise in markdowns. However, this is in sharp contrast to 2021, when only 8.7% of listings saw price reductions.
The price cut % of Texas reached 25.5% in 2025, which is the highest since 2017. Access the above graph here. [Link]
Moreover, the current price cut percentage is now the highest since 2017, when 24.9% of listings were reduced. This trend suggests sellers are responding to weaker demand and affordability concerns by lowering asking prices. With fewer bidding wars and longer days on market, many are opting for discounts to stay competitive. If this pattern holds, deeper price corrections could continue through 2025.
Texas can present a buying opportunity this year, but caution is key. Although the market is cooling, prices are still relatively high. However, with inventory levels increasing and 25.5% of listings already facing price cuts, the trend suggests that there is more room for prices to fall. Buyers who wait may find better deals as the year progresses.
Home Prices Set to Fall Across Major Texas Metros in 2025
The latest Texas housing market data on Reventure App suggests home prices are likely to drop across all major Texas metros, with steep discounts already underway. For instance, Midland leads with 33.7% of listings having price cuts, followed closely by San Antonio (31.6%), Austin (29.7%), and Longview (27.0%). Moreover, San Antonio is already seeing a -2.1% year-over-year decline in home values, while Austin shows a sharper -3.8% drop, indicating real-time correction in these overheated markets.
All the major metros in Texas are experiencing price cuts in 2025. Access the above table here. [Link]
Austin also has the highest value-to-income ratio at 4.4, hinting at affordability issues that could trigger deeper pullbacks. Meanwhile, Houston, the second largest metro with a population of over 7.4 million, shows a 23.4% price cut rate and a slight -0.2% dip in home values, despite being 18.3% overvalued. Similarly, Dallas, with a population of 8.1 million, shows a 31.5% price cut rate and a -1.3% decline in home values.
High price cuts, combined with overvaluation and stretched income ratios across metros, point to an overall cooling in major Texas markets. If you need ZIP code-level information on the Texas housing situation, sign up for Reventure Apps’ premium plan for just $39/ month. Get exclusive access to various market metrics across any state, metro, county, or ZIP code in the U.S.
FAQs about Texas Home Prices Drop
1. Will Home Prices in Texas Continue to Fall in 2025?
Yes, most indicators point to further price declines in 2025. Rising inventory, affordability issues, and increasing price cuts suggest downward pressure will persist across major Texas housing markets.
2. Is Now a Good Time to Buy a Home in Texas?
It could be, but timing matters. Prices are falling, and waiting a bit longer might offer even better deals as the market continues to adjust downward.
3. Which Texas Cities Are Seeing the Biggest Price Drops?
Midland, San Antonio, and Austin are among the metros with the highest price cuts. These cities are showing the sharpest year-over-year declines in home values.
