The U.S. housing market is heading into uncertain territory in 2025, with some metro areas poised for significant home price declines. Using home price forecast data from Reventure App based on risk factors like oversupply, declining demand, and investor pullback, we’ve identified the ten most vulnerable metros with populations over 300,000. These metros have the lowest Reventure Scores, indicating a high likelihood of home price declines in the coming year. If you’re a homebuyer or investor, this list is your early warning.
Market-by-Market Breakdown of the Lowest Performing Metros in 2025
Below are the top 10 U.S. metro areas most likely to see home price declines in 2025, ranked by their Reventure Score and expected price forecast.
1. Cape Coral, FL
Forecast Score: 26
Expected Price Decline: -9.04%
Cape Coral is already in decline, with home values down -6.5% over the past year. The Reventure model expects a further -9% drop, driven by softening demand and a rapid inventory build-up. Once popular with investors, the market is losing steam.
2. Denver, CO
Forecast Score: 27
Expected Price Decline: -8.58%
Denver may still show slight year-over-year growth (+0.5%), but that momentum is fading. The city’s housing affordability challenges and a growing mismatch between supply and demand suggest an 8.6% correction is on the horizon.
3. Colorado Springs, CO
Forecast Score: 27
Expected Price Decline: -8.58%
Similar to Denver, Colorado Springs has witnessed price gains this year. However, Reventure App’s score predicts this market could soon reverse course, with prices falling by nearly -9% as affordability concerns mount.
4. Lakeland, FL
Forecast Score: 27
Expected Price Decline: -8.58%
Lakeland’s market is already down, the home value growth has dropped to -1.8% YoY, and further weakness is expected. Reventure sees prices falling another -8.6% as buyer interest wanes and inventory creeps up in this previously hot Florida market.
5. Killeen, TX
Forecast Score: 28
Expected Price Decline: -8.12%
Killeen’s military-driven housing economy has started to cool, with prices down -1.1% YoY. Forecasts suggest an additional -8.12% drop, driven by slowing turnover and declining affordability amid broader market headwinds.
Cape Coral has the lowest Reventure Home Price Forecast Score out of all the metros in 2025. Access the above table here. [Link]
6. Palm Bay, FL
Forecast Score: 31
Expected Price Decline: -6.74%
Palm Bay is seeing declines as well, with home values down -2.4% year-over-year. The Reventure Score suggests this is just the beginning, projecting approximately -7% more in price erosion as supply outpaces demand.
7. North Port, FL
Forecast Score: 32
Expected Price Decline: -6.28%
With prices already falling -6.2% in 2025, North Port is one of the hardest-hit Florida metros. Reventure expects an additional -6.3% drop, indicating a prolonged correction from the pandemic-era housing boom.
8. Austin, TX
Forecast Score: 33
Expected Price Decline: -5.82%
Austin’s cooling trend continues. Down -3.4% since the start of 2025, prices are projected to slide another -5.8%. The city’s tech layoffs, combined with high new construction levels, are keeping the market under pressure.
9. San Antonio, TX
Forecast Score: 33
Expected Price Decline: -5.82%
San Antonio has seen a modest -1.8% decline YoY, but forecasts suggest the correction isn’t over. With affordability stretched and supply ticking up, another -5.8% drop could be in store.
10. Dallas, TX
Forecast Score: 33
Expected Price Decline: -5.82%
Home values in Dallas have dipped -0.6% over the past year, and the Reventure Score indicates more downside is likely. With higher rates and more listings hitting the market, prices could fall another -5.8%.
Understanding Reventure App’s Home Price Forecast Score
Reventure App’s Home Price Forecast Score is a tool that evaluates the health of housing markets on a scale from 0 to 100. A score of 50 represents market stability, while scores below 50 indicate declining conditions and a higher likelihood of future home price drops. The score is based on several key real estate indicators, including changes in inventory, the percentage of listings with price cuts, average days on the market, mortgage rate trends, and recent home price appreciation. Lower scores reflect rising risk, often in overheated or buyer-driven markets. You can access the Reventure Score for your specific ZIP code by signing up for the premium plan, available for $39/month.
FAQs about Top 10 Housing Markets Where Home Prices Will Drop in 2025
1. Why are Home Prices Expected to Fall in These Specific Metros?
These metros have high inventory levels, slowing demand, and affordability issues. Reventure’s low forecast scores indicate market imbalances that typically precede significant home price corrections in the following year.
2. Is This a Housing Market Crash or a Healthy Correction?
It’s more of a correction than a crash. Many cities saw unsustainable growth post-2020. Declines in 2025 reflect a return to more normal price levels, especially in overvalued or investor-driven markets.
3. Should I Still Buy a Home in One of These Cities?
Buy only if you’re planning long-term. Falling prices could benefit buyers later in 2025, but short-term buyers and flippers may face losses. Timing and local conditions matter more than national trends.
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