Phoenix is officially losing people, marking a major demographic shift between 2022 and 2025. In Maricopa County, net domestic migration fell from 32.6k in 2022 to -1.8k in 2024, reversing thirteen years of consistent population gains. This steep decline comes as home value growth also slowed dramatically, from a 28.7% increase in 2022 to a -0.4% drop in 2025. The combination indicates a cooling housing market as demand begins to weaken.
Migration Slows As Homes for Sale Rise in Phoenix in 2025
In 2024, Phoenix recorded its second-ever year of net population loss, with Maricopa County showing a domestic migration figure of just -1,800 people. According to data available on Reventure App, this follows a dramatic drop from the previous year’s 43,200 and marks a historic shift not seen since the Great Recession in 2008. The last time Phoenix experienced net negative migration was in 2010 when the figure dropped to -10,800. Migration has fallen sharply from the pandemic-era peak in 2020, when the county gained 64,400 new residents.
Maricopa County’s domestic migration decreased to -1.8k in 2025. Access the domestic migration chart of Maricopa County here. [Link]
This slowdown in migration is now beginning to impact Phoenix’s housing market. As demand softens, the number of active listings in Maricopa County has risen sharply. For sale inventory climbed to 14,767 in early 2025, up from 9,980 in 2024 and nearly quadruple the pandemic low of 3,330 in 2022. With fewer new residents and more homes on the market, Phoenix’s once red-hot housing market appears to be cooling, putting downward pressure on future home prices.
Phoenix Home Prices Cool Off but Remain Well Above Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2025
According to data available on Reventure App, home price growth in Maricopa County of Phoenix has slowed significantly, with year-over-year appreciation dropping to -0.4% in 2025. This marks a sharp reversal from the 16.0% surge seen in 2022. Since peaking in mid-2022, when values were around $468,200, prices have edged slightly lower, now resting at $466,900. Although the decline is modest, at only about 0.3%, it reflects a clear cooling in market momentum after years of double-digit growth fueled by the pandemic housing boom.
Maricopa County’s home value growth % YoY reached -0.4% in 2025. Access the above home value growth YoY chart here. [Link]
However, despite the recent slowdown, typical home values in Phoenix remain far above pre-pandemic levels. In 2019, the average home value in Maricopa County was just $306,100. Compared to that, current values are still over 50% higher. Moreover, homeowners who purchased prior to 2020 continue to hold significant equity gains. This suggests that while appreciation has stalled and prices have softened slightly, Phoenix housing remains historically expensive by past standards, and the market has not returned to pre-COVID norms.
Phoenix, AZ’s Housing Market Predictions for 2025
According to Reventure App’s latest Home Price Forecast, Maricopa County scored 38 out of 100 for 2025, which clearly highlights a shift toward a declining market. This is significantly below the stability threshold of 45, indicating weakening conditions in Phoenix. As a result, buyer demand has reduced, the number of sellers has increased, and price cuts are becoming more common, all pointing toward future home price declines.
Maricopa County’s home price forecast score reached 38/ 100 entering 2025. Access the home price forecast score chart here. [Link]
Although 2024 showed a brief rebound with a score of 48, suggesting some short-term stability with a downward tilt, the decline to 38 in 2025 confirms continued weakness. Moreover, with homes staying longer on the market and inventory rising, sellers are now under pressure to lower prices in order to compete. Phoenix’s housing market appears to be cooling following years of rapid price appreciation. If you want a detailed analysis of the Phenix, AZ metro area, explore the housing market data at the ZIP-code level on Reventure App.
Access Housing Market data for Arizona and other States on Reventure App.
FAQs about Phoenix Housing Market
Is the Phoenix Real Estate Market Expected to Crash in 2025?
While a full market crash is unlikely, Phoenix is seeing signs of a housing correction in 2025. Home price growth has turned negative at -0.4% YoY, inventory is rising, and demand is weakening due to reduced migration and higher mortgage rates.
Why Are Home Prices Dropping in Phoenix, Arizona?
Home prices in Phoenix are dropping primarily due to a sharp decline in domestic migration and increasing housing supply. With fewer buyers entering the market and active listings rising to over 14,700 in 2025, sellers are cutting prices to stay competitive.
Will Housing Become Affordable Again in Phoenix By the End of 2025?
Although prices are softening, home values remain over 50% higher than in 2019. Unless migration continues to decline and supply increases further, affordability may improve slightly but is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2025.
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