Florida’s housing market is in the beginning stages of a rapid downturn, where home prices are coming down and inventory levels are exploding. Homebuyers and real estate investors across Florida need to be very careful right now, because buying into this market could mean catching a falling knife, and losing lots of money.
Alternatively – this Florida housing downturn could provide some good deals for discerning buyers and investors, with some homes trading for 15-20% below their previous peak in value.
In order to discern where and when to buy in Florida in 2024, it’s imperative to consult the data.
Cities in Florida where Inventory has spiked in the most in 2024
The first step in understanding which areas of Florida are on the fastest decline, and where prices could drop most in 2024, is by consulting the inventory trends. In particular: what are the metros in Florida where inventory has risen the fastest over the last and where there is now a definitive surplus of homes on the market?
You can see, that a year-over-year basis, Punta Gorda, FL comes in first place, with a gigantic 102.8% inventory spike from the previous year, which now puts inventory in Punta Gorda at a 95% surplus to its long-term norm. That high of a surplus indicates excess supply, and heavy downward price pressure.
Meanwhile – a market like Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL has experienced an 87% YoY inventory spike, which now puts the number of homes for sale at a 50% premium to the long-term, seven-year average.
Other metros in Florida with a big spike in Inventory include Naples, North Port-Sarasota, Cape Coral, Orlando, and Palm Bay.
Don’t be surprised if home prices in these markets face a heavy correction in the second half of 2024 due to all the excess supply hitting the market.
High inventory + heavy Overvaluation equates to big Home Price Downside
While the inventory trends give homebuyers and investors an indication of the short-term dynamics of the market, with higher inventory levels being more likely to induce short-term price declines, it’s really the overvaluation metric which gives you a clue about how much overall downside there is.
The table below shows the top 10 markets in Florida that are most overvalued right now in mid-2024. Theoretically, these markets have the most potential long-term downside due to this overvaluation. These are areas where the home prices surged up way past the income/wages, leaving local buyers priced out of the market.
When local buyers are priced out of the market, it makes it more likely that prices will correct over the long-term, because the local buyers need cheaper prices in order to qualify for mortgages and buy homes. You can see Port St. Lucie, FL is the most overvalued market in Florida, with prices 38.7% above their long-term norms.
Other markets with heavy overvaluation include Lakeland, Ocala, Miami, the aforementioned Punta Gorda, Tampa, and Orlando. If you see a market show up on both the inventory spike and overvaluation list, it signals that there is a much greater risk of home price declines.
Sign-up for a Premium Membership on Reventure App to access this data for your city and ZIP Code
Given the rapid shifts in Florida’s Housing Market in 2024, it is imperative that homebuyers and investors understand the real-time trends in the market for their city and ZIP code. Particularly: the inventory situation, price cut trends, the short-term home price forecast, as well as how fundamentally over or undervalued home prices are in you area. Access this data for yourself on Reventure App under a premium plan, which costs $39/month or $399/year.
Head to the pricing page now to upgrade, or simply click the image below and get taken to the overvaluation map and sign-up.
